USO 2018 QF: Nadal v. Thiem

POINT ANALYSIS

UNLIMTED POWER: Nadal overcomes Thiem’s insane firepower. Steve Kerr is definitely impressed. Highly recommend you watch this with sound.
Source: US Open Channel

This point really showcases Thiem’s tendency to rely too much on overpowering his opponent. He has that advantage in pure ground stroke ability for most opponents. But for Nadal, there is a need to really play your cards smarter.

Look how Nadal literally turns this point around with a single, high topspin backhand he hits. It forces a slice, and Nadal instantly punishes Thiem. He creates space on the court and snowballs his lead far more effectively. And that really is the difference between them. Nadal knows where to press for it to hurt. Meanwhile, Thiem is blasting everything to Nadal’s strongest side. This would make far more sense if Thiem constructed this point on the deuce-side cross courts. But in Thiem’s defense, up to now, he has been able to overwhelm Nadal with pure power. Yet with the Big 3, you have to expect that level of adaptability, and Thiem’s moment of “inspiration” was not going to last forever.

This was one of the off-season goals that Thiem was working on to improve his hard court play. Throughout the match and the tournament, we were seeing a more willingness to take balls on the rise and shorten his backswing. His default reaction is to retreat into the back court which is more effective in clay.

So now we’re getting into a recurring pattern, where Thiem prefers to go BIG on BIG targets. If you noticed, none of his spots have a lot of angle, but rely heavily on pace and spin. And he almost gets loses the point for it.

This playstyle is very dangerous and is probably the reason why he doesn’t win this match. His perforamnce is really a best case scenario for thiem. He is playing lights out tennis. If he’s doesn’t win this match, which he doesn’t, then he needs to adapt his game plan. The problem in this match and his match against Djokovic in AO 2020 is his playstyle is very streaky. For every streak of hotness he’ll earn a break of serve. But as everythign the law of averages apply and his gameplan isn’t sustainable. Soon enough he runs into a small dip and gets broken right back. This happens constantly.

Compare this to his US Open run in 2020, and you can see Thiem’s maturity and development. He was far more patient and smarter player. And truthfully, this match is a big reason why. He learned his lesson and kept pushing forward.